States with the Largest Declines in Young Drinking Driver
Fatal Crash Involvements, 1982-1998
dThe experience of various regions of the country, and the individual states within these regions, regarding young drinking driver involvements in fatal crashes is examined in the following material. The measure used is the rate of drinking drivers age 16 to 20 involved in fatal crashes per 100,000 population in that age range.
Table 2 shows the percentage declines from 1982 to1998 in each state in the youth drinking driver rate. The percentage change for each state was determined by fitting a linear regression to annual data for 1982-1998 and then estimating the "predicted" number of driver involvements in 1982 and 1998. These numbers were then used to calculate the 1982-1998 percentage change. This approach "smooths" the data series by giving weight to the intervening years, and thereby provides a better summary measure than the unadjusted change from 1982 to 1998 alone. Table 3 shows these same data with the states listed in rank order from largest to smallest decline.
Note that the reported results for Mississippi should be viewed with great caution. Mississippi's alcohol testing rates were very low in the early 1980s (for example, only nine percent of fatally-injured drivers in 1982 had a known BAC). Consequently, the FARS imputation model results used in Tables 2 and 3 may be misleading. See the full Mississippi data in Figure 15 and the accompanying discussion surrounding Table 9 for further detail.
Tables 2 and 3 reveal that virtually all states had substantial declines in the rate of youthful drinking driver involvements in fatal crashes. The median percentage decline was more than 65 percent and there were eight states that had declines of 80 percent or more.
Figure 9 highlights the top 25 states listed in Table 3. The figure shows that most of the top 25 states are located along the east and west coasts while most of the lower ranking states are located in interior sections of the country.
Figure 9.
States with the Largest Declines in Young Drinking Driver
Fatal Crash Involvements, 1982-1998
d
Table 4 shows the percentage change from 1982 to 1998 in 16-20 year old drinking drivers per 100,000 population for each of the New England states (hereafter the "youth drinking driver rate") and their national ranking on this measure. The table also shows the year in which each state implemented a minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) law at 21 years old, and the year in which each state adopted a zero tolerance law at .02 BAC or lower for persons under the age of 21. Figure 10 plots the trend in each state in the youth drinking driver rate over the 1982-1998 period.
Table 4 indicates that five of the six New England states were in the top 10 regarding the change in the youth drinking driver rate. In 1984, Rhode Island adopted an age 21 minimum drinking age law, Vermont did so in 1986 while the other four states in the region implemented MLDA 21 laws in 1985. The minimum drinking age did not necessarily change from 18 to 21 years in a single step. For example, Connecticut changed from age 18 to19 in 1982, from 19 to 20 in 1983 and then to age 21 in 1985. Maine changed from age 18 to 20 in 1977, and then to age 21 in 1985. Massachusetts changed from age 18 to 20 in 1979, and then to age 21 in 1985. New Hampshire changed from age 18 to 20 in1979, and then to age 21 in 1985. Rhode Island changed from age 18 to 19 in 1980, to age 20 in 1981 and then to age 21 in 1984. Vermont was the only state in the region to change from age 18 to age 21 in a single step. The "legal drinking age," therefore was an active topic in the region in the early 1980s. At the close of 1982, age 18 was the legal drinking age only in Vermont. Similar incremental steps occurred in many states in other regions.
Zero tolerance was first adopted nationally by Maine in 1983. Vermont, in 1997, was the last of the New England States to do so. A few states have approached zero tolerance incrementally. For example, before adopting MLDA 21 in 1995, Rhode Island had a 0.04 limit for persons under the age of 18. Data for all states on the adoption of MLDA and zero tolerance laws are contained in the Appendix.
Figure 10 shows that the drinking driver rate for youth generally declined in each state from the early 1980s through the early 1990s and have become roughly constant since then. These states have relatively small populations so small changes in driver involvements can produce considerable fluctuations. Nevertheless, since the early 1990s, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts and New Hampshire generally have had rates in the 5 to 10 range (drinking drivers involved per 100,000 population). Rhode Island generally has had lower rates while Vermont has been higher.
Figure 10.
New England States-Drinking Drivers Age 16-20
Involved in Fatal Crashes (Rate per 100,000 Population)
d
Of the three states in this region, New Jersey and New York ranked in the top 10 nationally in the change in the youth drinking driver rate while Pennsylvania ranked 35th. Pennsylvania is one of 11 states whose minimum drinking age has been 21 since the 1930s. New Jersey changed from age 18 to 19 in 1980 and then to age 21 in 1983. New York changed from age 18 to 19 in 1982 and to age 21 in 1985. New Jersey adopted zero tolerance in 1992 while New York and Pennsylvania did so in 1996 (see Table 5).
Figure 11 shows the trend in the youth drinking driver rate in the three Mid Atlantic states over the 1882-1998 period. In New Jersey, the rate declined through 1991 and has remained at or below 5 (per 100,000 population) since then. The New York rate also reached 5 in 1991 but has continued downward since then. The Pennsylvania rate fell below 10 (per 100,000) in 1992 and has fluctuated between 5 and 10 since then. The New Jersey rate is influenced by the fact that the state's minimum licensing age has been 17. Similarly, New York's residents cannot be fully licensed until age 17 with driver education or age 18 without driver education. New York issues Junior Licenses at age 16. However, these licenses have night driving curfews and cannot be used at any time in New York City, and only in a very limited way on Long Island,
Figure 11.
Mid Atlantic States-Drinking Drivers Age 16-20
Involved in Fatal Crashes (Rate per 100,000 Population)
Table 6 shows the percentage change in the youth drinking driver rate for each of the eight states in the South Atlantic region, the states' national ranking and when each state adopted MLDA 21 and zero tolerance. Seven of the eight states in the region ranked in the top half of all states in the percentage change in the youth drinking driver rate. Each state adopted MLDA 21 between 1982 and 1986. Delaware raised its minimum drinking age to 21 in 1984. Prior to that the MLDA had been age 20. Florida raised its drinking age from 18 to 19 in 1980 and then to 21 in 1985. Georgia raised its MLDA from 18 to 19 in 1980, to 20 in 1985 and then to 21 in 1986. Maryland changed from 18 to 21 in 1982. North Carolina went from 18 to 19 in 1983 and then to age 21 in 1986. South Carolina went from age 18 to 19 (1984), 19 to 20 (1985) and 20 to 21 (1986). Virginia changed its MLDA from 18 to 19 in 1981, and to 21 in 1985. West Virginia changed from 18 to 19 in 1983 then to age 21 in 1986. Maryland, in 1990, was the first state in the region to enact a zero tolerance law while the other states in this region enacted zero tolerance between 1994 and 1998.
Figure 12 shows the trends in the youth drinking driver rate for the South Atlantic states over the 1982-1998 period. The rates in Georgia and Virginia declined into the early 1990s and have then remained relatively constant between 5 and 10 (per 100,000 population). Maryland attained the lowest rate in the region by the early 1990s but increased somewhat in recent years. Florida's youth drinking driver rate stabilized near 10 for several years after 1991 and has declined again more recently. North Carolina has been more or less stable around the 10 since 1991. The trends for Delaware, South Carolina and West Virginia show somewhat greater variability. Recently, Delaware has been in the 5 to 10 range, South Carolina has fluctuated considerably, and West Virginia has been in the 10-15 rate range.
Figure 12.
South Atlantic States-Drinking Drivers Age 16-20
Involved in Fatal Crashes (Rate per 100,000 Population)
Of the states in the East North Central region, Ohio and Wisconsin had the largest declines in the youth drinking driver rate while Illinois, Indiana and Michigan have been below the mid-point of the 50 states (Table 7). Illinois adopted an MLDA 21 law in 1980, raised from age 19. Indiana had a 21 year old minimum drinking age law since the 1930s. Michigan was the earliest state to change its MLDA from 18 to 21 in a single step, having done so in 1978. Ohio changed its MLDA from 18 to 19 in 1982 then to age 21 in 1987. Wisconsin went from age 18 to 19 in 1984 then to age 21 in 1986. Michigan and Ohio adopted zero tolerance laws in 1994, Illinois did so in 1995 and Wisconsin did so in 1997.
Figure 13 shows the trends in the youth drinking driver rates for the East North Central states. Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio were below the national average rate of 21per 100,000 population in 1982, declined somewhat into the 1990s, and have been more or less stable in the 5-10 range since. Ohio has achieved the lowest rate of the region having been relative constant near the 5 per 100,000 rate for a number of years. Wisconsin began the period above the national average, declined reasonably steadily until 1996, and rose again in 1997 and 1998.
Figure 13.
East North Central States-Drinking Drivers Age 16-20
Involved in Fatal Crashes (Rate per 100,000 Population)
The states in this region were all in the lower half of the states in terms of percentage declines in youth drinking drive rates and several were among those with the smallest declines (Table 8). Iowa changed its MLDA from 18 to 19 in 1978 and to age 21 in 1986. Kansas changed from 18 to 21 in a single step in 1985. Minnesota increased its MLDA from 18 to 19 in 1976 and to 21 in 1986. North Dakota had a 21 year-old minimum drinking age dating back to the 1930s and Missouri had an age 21 law since 1945. Nebraska changed its MLDA from 18 to 19 in 1980 and then to 21 in 1985. South Dakota changed from 18 to 19 in 1984 and to age 21 in 1988, one of the last states to do so. Minnesota, in 1993, was the first state in the region to adopt a zero tolerance law while South Dakota, in 1998, was the last.
The trends in the youth drinking driver rates for each of the West North Central states are shown in Figure 14. Most of the states in this region began the period examined above the national rate (21 per 100,000) and at the end of the period shown only Iowa was below a rate of 10 per 100,000 population.
Figure 14.
West North Central States-Drinking Drivers Age 16-20
Involved in Fatal Crashes (Rate per 100,000 Population)
All four of the states in this region were in the lower one-half of the states in terms of declines in the youth drinking driver rate (Table 9) though as noted previously the reported 47.7 percent increase for Mississippi is undoubtedly spurious. Figure 15 shows a pattern for Mississippi unlike that of any other state and shows apparent drinking-driver involvement rates in the early 1980s for Mississippi far below those of any other state. By about 1989, the Mississippi rates of about 20 per 100,000 population are similar to those of the other states in this region and similar to rates in the adjoining states of Louisiana and Arkansas (Figure 16). It is reasonable to conclude that the Mississippi data do not describe Mississippi fatal crash involvement rates accurately until about 1989. From that point, they probably are reasonably accurate in showing a gradual decrease from a rate of about 20 in 1989 to a rate of about 15 in 1998
Kentucky was one of the states with an MLDA 21 law that dates back to the 1930s. Alabama adopted age 21 in a single step in 1985 as did Mississippi in 1986. Tennessee went from age 18 to 19 in 1979, then to age 21 in 1984. Tennessee was the first state in the region to adopt zero tolerance (1993) while Mississippi was the last (1998).
Figure 15 shows the trends in the rate of 16-20 year old drinking driver involvements in fatal crashes over the 1982-1998 period for these four states. Alabama, Kentucky and Tennessee had declines over the period shown but were still above a rate of 10 per 100,000 population in 1998, as was Mississippi.
Figure 15.
East South Central States-Drinking Drivers Age 16-20
Involved in Fatal Crashes (Rate per 100,000 Population)
Table 10 shows that among the four states in this region, Texas was in the top half of all states in the percentage decline in the youth drinking driver rates while Arkansas, Louisiana and Oklahoma were in the second half. Arkansas has had MLDA 21 since 1935. Louisiana adopted an MLDA 21 law in 1987 and Oklahoma did so in 1985. Texas changed its law from age 18 to 19 in 1981 and to age 21 in 1986 (O'Malley and Wagenaar, 1991). Arkansas, in 1993, was the first state in the region to adopt a zero tolerance law, Oklahoma did so in 1996 and Louisiana and Texas followed in 1997.
Figure 16 shows the 1982-1998 trends in the youth drinking driver rates for the West South Central states. Each of the four states began the period with rates well above the national average. Each state generally showed declines that continued into the 1990s. Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas appear to have leveled out in the 10-15 per 100,000 population range while Arkansas may still be declining.
Figure 16.
West South Central States-Drinking Drivers Age 16-20
Involved in Fatal Crashes (Rate per 100,000 Population)
As shown in Table 11, four states in this region, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada and Utah, were in the top half of the states in the percentage decline in youth drinking driver rates while the other four states were among the second half. Three states, Nevada, New Mexico and Utah, have had MLDA 21 laws since the 1930s. Arizona changed its law from age 19 to age 21 in 1985. Colorado also has had a long standing minimum drinking age of 21 except that lower strength beer could be purchased at age 18. The latter provision was ended in 1987. Idaho raised its drinking age to 21 in 1987 and Montana raised its minimum drinking age from 18 to 19 in 1979 and then to age 21 in 1987. Wyoming, in 1988, was the last state to adopt an age 21 law. Arizona was the second state in the nation to adopt a zero tolerance law. Wyoming (1998) was the last state of this region to enact such a law.
Figure 17 shows that each of the Mountain States except Utah had youth drinking driver rates in 1982 that were above the national average (21 per 100,000 population). Rates in most of these states remained high, or even increased, until later in the 1980s, then declined. Colorado had a general downward trend over the entire 1982-1998 period. In 1982, Utah had among the lowest rates of all states (16), remained near that rate until1986, and then declined. In 1998, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico and Wyoming had youth drinking driver rates at or above 15; Arizona's rate was in the 10-15 range; Colorado and Idaho were in the 5-10 range; and Utah had a rate under 5.
Figure 17.
Mountain States-Drinking Drivers Age 16-20
Involved in Fatal Crashes (Rate per 100,000 Population)
Table 12 shows that five of the six Western states were in the top one-half of the states in the percentage decline in the youth drinking driver involvement rate. California, Oregon and Washington have had 21 year old minimum drinking ages since the 1930s. Alaska adopted an age 21 law in 1984 and Hawaii did so in 1986. Oregon was the third state in the nation, after Maryland and Arizona, to adopt a zero tolerance law. Hawaii was the last state in the nation to have such a law in effect.
Figure 18 shows the trends for the Western states in youth drinking driver rates over the 1982-1998 period. Alaska began the period with among the highest rates in the country; by the end of the period it was among only a few states with a rate below 5 per 100,000 population. The trends in California and Washington were generally downward through the mid-1990s and have been relatively constant in more recent years. Oregon's rate dropped sharply between 1989 and 1992 and has risen somewhat since that time. Hawaii has had a variable but generally downward trend over the 1982-1998 period.
Figure 18.
Western States-Drinking Drivers Age 16-20
Involved in Fatal Crashes (Rate per 100,000 Population)
