Midterm Evaluation for Light-Duty CAFE, MYs 2022-2025
On July 18, 2016, NHTSA, EPA, and CARB completed the first step in the mid-term evaluation process for CAFE and GHG emissions standards for model years 2022-2025 by issuing a Draft Technical Assessment Report (TAR).The Draft TAR evaluates fuel economy improvements made in response to CAFE and GHG emissions standards so far, and how auto manufacturers could improve their fleets to meet more stringent standards in the future. The Draft TAR is the first step in the mid-term evaluation process, and stakeholder input on the analysis and findings is crucial to NHTSA’s upcoming rulemaking to set CAFE standards for MYs 2022-2025.
- Read the Draft TAR
- Executive Summary
- Read the Federal Register notice announcing the Draft TAR
- Comment on the Draft TAR and accompanying research
- Draft TAR News Release
- CAFE Compliance and Effects Modeling System (Volpe Model)
- Mid-term Evaluation Schedule
- NHTSA Technical Projects Underway to Inform the Midterm Evaluation
- NHTSA Publications Informing the Midterm Evaluation
- 2016 NHTSA, EPA, and CARB workshop on technology effectiveness modeling methodologies for the Draft TAR
Schedule for the MYs 2022-2025 CAFE standards and MTE
The mid-term evaluation for NHTSA is a three-step process, which includes several opportunities for public input:
Draft Technical Assessment Report (TAR) - The first step in the process is the issuance of the Draft TAR for public comment. The Draft TAR is a technical report, not a decision document, and examines a wide range of factors relevant to the 2022-2025 standards. Public input on the Draft TAR, along with any new data and information, will inform the next step – NHTSA's Notice of Proposed Rulemaking.
NHTSA Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) – NHTSA is required by Congress to conduct a comprehensive new rulemaking in order to establish CAFE standards for MYs 2022–2025. The next step in the process after the Draft TAR is to issue a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM). The NHTSA NPRM will go through the full public comment process and comply with all established Federal rulemaking requirements.
Public input on the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, as well as new data and information available, will inform the next step - NHTSA's Final Rule.
NHTSA Final Rule – Following a full NPRM public comment period, NHTSA will address comments and issue a Final Rule on CAFE standards for MYs 2022-2025. At the very latest, NHTSA will complete the final rule in sufficient time to issue final standards for MY 2022-2025 with at least 18 months lead time, but additional lead time may be provided (77 FR 62785, October 15, 2012).
NHTSA Technical Projects to Inform the Midterm Evaluation and CAFE Rulemaking
NHTSA has sponsored and will continue to sponsor new studies and research to inform the mid-term evaluation, NHTSA's CAFE rulemaking, and EPA's potential GHG emissions rulemaking. The technical projects are summarized and linked below. In establishing standards, the agencies will consider all available data, studies, and information objectively, without regard to whether they were sponsored by the agencies.
(613 pp, 15MB, 2015, National Academy of Sciences). Committee on the Assessment of Technologies for Improving Fuel Economy of Light-Duty Vehicles, Phase 2; Board on Energy and Environmental Systems; Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences; National Research Council. The National Academies Press, Washington, DC.
2. Simulation Modeling to Determine Technology Effectiveness
Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) large-scale simulation using Argonne's Autonomie Vehicle simulation tool to estimate the effects of combinations of technologies on fuel economy. Simulation of all feasible technology combinations is yielding databases that are flexible, account for all technology interactions, and can be fed directly into the CAFE model, which NHTSA uses for fleet-level analysis. (click to access sub-bullets)
Simulation Inputs and Results for Draft TAR CAFE analysis:
a) Process Description and Modeling Assumptions Report. Argonne report describing vehicle simulation process, as well as resulting database structure and design for use in the CAFE model.
b) IAV Engine performance map assumption, development process and results. [pdf file]
c) Engine Maps. Detailed results of engine simulations performed by IAV Automotive Engineering using GT-POWER to estimate fuel consumption as a function of engine speed and torque output.
d) Vehicle Model Assumptions. Files containing the main model assumptions including vehicle, engine and transmission characteristics for 5 passenger car and light truck classes.
e) Effectiveness Databases. Files containing technology combination effectiveness results from Autonomie simulations for 5 passenger vehicle car and light truck vehicle classes. [61MB zip]
f) Data Dictionary. Dictionary of fields and units in simulation database.
Related Argonne National Laboratory Publications
a) Kim, N., Shidore, N., Rousseau, A. "Sizing Algorithm Validation for Several Vehicle Powertrains" [PowerPoint Slides]
b) Rousseau, A., Shidore, N., Karbowski, P., Sharer, P. "Autonomie Vehicle Validation Summary" [PowerPoint Slides]
c) Islam, E., Moawad, A., Rousseau, A. (July 25th, 2015) "Fuel Consumption Improvement Study over combinations of technologies [Rev. 2] VOLPE vs. Autonomie (ANL)" Presentation for DOT/VOLPE
d) Moawad, A., Rousseau, A. (June 2, 2015) "Engine Parametric Study /-10kW range with a step of 1kW" Presentation for DOT/VOLPE
e) Moawad, A., Balaprakash, P., Rousseau, A. EVS28 Conference "Novel Large Scale Simulation Process to Support DOT's CAFE Modeling System." KINTEX, Korea, May 3-6, 2015 [Paper] [Presentation]
f) Kim, N., Shidore, N., Rousseau, A. "Vehicle Modeling for use in the CAFE model process description and modeling assumptions"
3. Vehicle mass reduction feasibility and cost
Mass reduction study on midsize passenger car using 2011MY Honda Accord and mass reduction study on full size pickup truck using 2014MY Chevy Silverado
a) Mass reduction of midsize passenger car
- Original report (Report No. DOT HS 811 666)
- Cost and models
- Peer review reports and responses to peer review report
- Updated report and models in response to comments and for IIHS small overlap test Report No. DOT HS 812 237)
b) Mass reduction feasibility and cost study of full-size pickup (2014 Silverado)
- Draft Report and models
- Peer review report and response – forthcoming
4. Statistical analysis of historical crash data to assess the effects of vehicle mass reduction and size on safety
The crash database was updated to the model years from 2003 to 2010
a) 2016 Preliminary Report on Relationship between Fatality Risk, Mass and Footprint with updated database and analysis
b) Download model year 2003 to 2010 crash database (Database used for 2016 Preliminary Report on Relationship between Fatality Risk, Mass and Footprint)
c) 2012 Report on Relationship between Fatality Risk, Mass and Footprint (Report No. 811 665)
d) Download model year 2000 to 2007 crash database (Database used for 2012 report on Relationship between Fatality Risk, Mass and Footprint)
5. Systems modeling to assess the effects of future lightweight vehicle designs on overall fleet safety. The approach includes estimating the real-world level of safety in a vehicle for its own occupants (self-protection) and for the occupants in vehicles with which it collides (partner protection)
Methodology for evaluating fleet protection of new vehicle designs: Application to lightweight vehicle designs (Report No. DOT HS 812 051A)
6. Assessing vehicle mass and size trends and potential safety effects
7. Market Forecast
a) Construct a new reference fleet using an updated baseline fleet and updated market forecast
b) Acquiring a market forecast to be used in forecasting future production volumes
NHTSA Presentations since 2012 Final Rule
NHTSA also has publicly presented information about our work in various forums:
- Presentations to NRC:
- DOT (June 23, 2014). National Research Council Assessment of Technologies for Improving Fuel Economy of Light-Duty Vehicles – Phase 2, "NHTSA's Recent Activities on Light-Duty Fuel Economy." Meeting Location: Keck Center, Washington DC.
- DOT (February 27, 2013). National Research Council Assessment of Technologies for Improving Fuel Economy of Light-Duty Vehicles – Phase 2, "Meeting on Volpe Model and Other CAFE Issues." Meeting Location: Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, Cambridge, MA.
- Presentations to SAE:
- MacIsaac, J. (January 21, 2016) "NHTSA Research to Inform the Midterm Evaluation and MY 2022-2025 CAFE Rulemaking" [PowerPoint Slides] SAE 2016 Government/Industry Meeting, Washington, DC.
- Tamm, J. (January 21, 2015) "Regulatory Analysis of Powertrain Technologies: One Pathway for Compliance with CAFE and GHG Emissions Standards." [PowerPoint Slides] SAE 2015 Government/Industry Meeting, Washington DC.
- Presentations to other venues:
- Presentations to NRC: